Abstract Detail

Pteridology

Pryer, Kathleen M. [1], Hay, Nikolai [2], McNiece, Elena [3], Cai, Victor [3], Windham, Michael [4].

Using MaxEnt modeling to predict the impact of climate change on Gymnocarpium appalachianum, the narrowly endemic Appalachian oak fern.

Anthropogenic climate change is projected to negatively impact the survival of plants that are dependent on limited microclimatic refugia. Gymnocarpium appalachianum Pryer & Haufler is a narrowly endemic fern restricted to cold mountaintops and algific vents in the central and southern Appalachian region of eastern North America. It is the rarer of the two sexual diploid parents of the circumboreal/temperate allotetraploid G. dryopteris (L.) Newm, one of the most widespread fern species on the planet. The other sexual diploid parent, which occurs in northwestern North America and Kamchatka, is G. disjunctum (Rupr.) Ching. Here we apply MaxEnt modeling to estimate the potential distribution area of G. appalachianum under current and future climate backgrounds. Understanding the long-term sustainability of narrowly endemic plants is critical in decisions about their management and conservation. Gymnocarpium appalachianum is a good case study for forecasting how evolutionarily significant, but rare, species may survive on a warming planet.

1 - Duke University, Biology, Duke University, Science Drive, Durham, NC, 27708, United States
2 - Duke University, Biology, Campus Box 90338, Durham, NC, 27708, United States
3 - Duke University, Biology, Durham, NC, 27708, USA
4 - Duke University, Department Of Biology, Box 90338, Durham, NC, 27708, United States

Keywords:
Climate change
Gymnocarpium appalachianum
sexual diploid parent
MaxEnt modeling
species management and conservation.

Presentation Type: Oral Paper
Session: 32, Pteridology III
Location: 105/Mayo Civic Center
Date: Tuesday, July 24th, 2018
Time: 3:00 PM
Number: 32005
Abstract ID:894
Candidate for Awards:None